By 1962, across key AI domains there was a recurring pattern of early dramatic success on simple or low‑quality tasks followed by diminishing returns, disenchantment, and even pessimism, with failure measured against the AI workers’ own optimistic expectations and rationalized by redefining 'progress' as mere displacement toward an ultimate goal—a move Dreyfus ridicules as like claiming that the first man to climb a tree has made tangible progress toward reaching the moon.

By Hubert L. Dreyfus, from What Computers Can't Do

Key Arguments

  • Surveying published results up to 1962, Dreyfus notes 'an early, dramatic success based on the easy performance of simple tasks, or low-quality work on complex tasks, and then diminishing returns, disenchantment, and, in some cases, pessimism.'
  • He emphasizes that this pattern 'is not the result of overenthusiastic pressure from eager or skeptical outsiders who demand too much too fast,' but that 'The failure to produce is measured solely against the expectations of those working in the field.'
  • He criticizes the tendency of 'enthusiasts' to 'fall back on their own optimism' by shifting from operational benchmarks to long‑range promises, as in Feigenbaum and Feldman's assertion that 'the forecast for progress in research in human cognitive processes is most encouraging.'
  • Feigenbaum and Feldman 'define progress very carefully as "displacement toward the ultimate goal."', which allows them to claim 'tangible progress' without concrete achievements.
  • Dreyfus mocks this definition by saying, 'According to this definition, the first man to climb a tree could claim tangible progress toward reaching the moon,' implying that such a notion of progress is practically meaningless.
  • He concludes that 'Rather than climbing blindly, it is better to look where one is going. It is time to study in detail the specific problems confronting work in artificial intelligence and the underlying difficulties that they reveal,' arguing for a sober diagnostic analysis instead of rhetorical optimism.

Source Quotes

I feel that many of the hoped-for objectives may well be porcelain eggs; they will never hatch, no matter how long heat is applied to them, because they require pattern discovery purely on the part of machines working alone. The tasks of discovery demand human qualities.24 Conclusion By 1962, if we are to judge by published results, an overall pattern had begun to take shape, although in some cases it was not recognized until later: an early, dramatic success based on the easy performance of simple tasks, or low-quality work on complex tasks, and then diminishing returns, disenchantment, and, in some cases, pessimism. This pattern is not the result of overenthusiastic pressure from eager or skeptical outsiders who demand too much too fast.
The tasks of discovery demand human qualities.24 Conclusion By 1962, if we are to judge by published results, an overall pattern had begun to take shape, although in some cases it was not recognized until later: an early, dramatic success based on the easy performance of simple tasks, or low-quality work on complex tasks, and then diminishing returns, disenchantment, and, in some cases, pessimism. This pattern is not the result of overenthusiastic pressure from eager or skeptical outsiders who demand too much too fast. The failure to produce is measured solely against the expectations of those working in the field. When the situation is grim, however, enthusiasts can always fall back on their own optimism.
The failure to produce is measured solely against the expectations of those working in the field. When the situation is grim, however, enthusiasts can always fall back on their own optimism. This tendency to substitute long-range for operational programs slips out in Feigenbaum and Feldman's claim that ''the forecast for progress in research in human cognitive processes is most encouraging."
When the situation is grim, however, enthusiasts can always fall back on their own optimism. This tendency to substitute long-range for operational programs slips out in Feigenbaum and Feldman's claim that ''the forecast for progress in research in human cognitive processes is most encouraging." 25 The forecast always has been, but one wonders: how encouraging are the prospects? Feigenbaum and Feldman claim that tangible progress is indeed being made, and they define progress very carefully as "displacement toward the ultimate goal."26 According to this definition, the first man to climb a tree could claim tangible progress toward reaching the moon.
25 The forecast always has been, but one wonders: how encouraging are the prospects? Feigenbaum and Feldman claim that tangible progress is indeed being made, and they define progress very carefully as "displacement toward the ultimate goal."26 According to this definition, the first man to climb a tree could claim tangible progress toward reaching the moon. Rather than climbing blindly, it is better to look where one is going.
Feigenbaum and Feldman claim that tangible progress is indeed being made, and they define progress very carefully as "displacement toward the ultimate goal."26 According to this definition, the first man to climb a tree could claim tangible progress toward reaching the moon. Rather than climbing blindly, it is better to look where one is going. It is time to study in detail the specific problems confronting work in artificial intelligence and the underlying difficulties that they reveal. II The Underlying Significance of Failure to Achieve Predicted Results Negative results, provided one recognizes them as such, can be interesting.

Key Concepts

  • By 1962, if we are to judge by published results, an overall pattern had begun to take shape, although in some cases it was not recognized until later: an early, dramatic success based on the easy performance of simple tasks, or low-quality work on complex tasks, and then diminishing returns, disenchantment, and, in some cases, pessimism.
  • This pattern is not the result of overenthusiastic pressure from eager or skeptical outsiders who demand too much too fast. The failure to produce is measured solely against the expectations of those working in the field.
  • enthusiasts can always fall back on their own optimism.
  • Feigenbaum and Feldman's claim that ''the forecast for progress in research in human cognitive processes is most encouraging." 25
  • they define progress very carefully as "displacement toward the ultimate goal."26 According to this definition, the first man to climb a tree could claim tangible progress toward reaching the moon.
  • Rather than climbing blindly, it is better to look where one is going. It is time to study in detail the specific problems confronting work in artificial intelligence and the underlying difficulties that they reveal.

Context

End of Phase I, in the 'Conclusion' subsection, where Dreyfus steps back from detailed case studies in translation, problem solving, and pattern recognition to characterize the overall empirical trajectory of AI and to criticize optimistic redefinitions of 'progress', including Feigenbaum and Feldman’s.