Key Arguments

• He frames his project by saying that 'The need for a critique of artificial reason is a special case of a general need for critical caution in the behavioral sciences.'
• At 'first glance' AI seems 'a happy exception' because 'Every day we read that digital computers play chess, translate languages, recognize patterns, and will soon be able to take over our jobs.'
• He notes that consumer products like Cosmos’s $20 'genuine (if small) computer' are advertised as able 'to translate foreign languages, diagnose illnesses, even provide a weather forecast,' creating the impression that AI has already mastered complex tasks.
• He cites popular reporting on Shakey as 'The First Electronic Person,' described as made up of 'five major systems of circuitry that correspond quite closely to basic human facultiessensation, reason, language, memory [and] ego,' and as a machine that '"sees," "understands," "learns," and, in general, has "demonstrated that machines can think."'
• He points to expert predictions quoted in Life that 'in from three to fifteen years "we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being . . . and in a few months [thereafter] it will be at genius level. . . . "'
• He emphasizes that films such as 2001: A Space Odyssey, backed by 'scrupulous documentation' and advice from 'the foremost computer specialists,' further reinforce the sense that such AI capabilities are realistically imminent.
• He recalls that Turing 'had in 1950 affirmed his belief that "at the end of the century the use of words and general educated opinion will have altered so much that one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted."'
• He notes that Marvin Minsky, technical consultant for 2001 and working 'on an early prototype of HAL,' 'assured Kubrick that Turing was, if anything, too pessimistic,' thereby heightening expectations.
• Having recounted these claims, Dreyfus proposes to 'begin with a prediction made by Herbert Simon in 1957' and then to 'measure this original prophecy against reality,' making clear that AI’s supposed successes must be critically reassessed.

Source Quotes

II The need for a critique of artificial reason is a special case of a general need for critical caution in the behavioral sciences. Chomsky remarks that in these sciences "there has been a natural but unfortunate tendency to 'extrapolate,' from the thimbleful of knowledge that has been attained in careful experimental work and rigorous data-processing, to issues of much wider significance and of great social concern."

A careful analysis of these limits will demonstrate that in virtually every domain of the social and behavioral sciences the results achieved to date will not support such "extrapolation." 29 Artificial intelligence, at first glance, seems to be a happy exception to this pessimistic principle. Every day we read that digital computers play chess, translate languages, recognize patterns, and will soon be able to take over our jobs.

29 Artificial intelligence, at first glance, seems to be a happy exception to this pessimistic principle. Every day we read that digital computers play chess, translate languages, recognize patterns, and will soon be able to take over our jobs. In fact this now seems like child's play.

In a North American Newspaper Alliance release, dated December 1968, entitled "A Computer for Kids" we are told that Cosmos, the West German publishing house . . . has come up with a new idea in gifts. . . . It's a genuine (if small) computer, and it costs around $20. Battery operated, it looks like a portable typewriter. But it can be programmed like any big computer to translate foreign languages, diagnose illnesses, even provide a weather forecast. And in a Life magazine article (Nov.

And in a Life magazine article (Nov. 20, 1970) entitled ''Meet Shakey, The First Electronic Person," the wide-eyed reader is told of a computer "made up of five major systems of circuitry that correspond quite closely to basic human facultiessensation, reason, language, memory [and] ego." According to the article, this computer "sees," "understands," "learns," and, in general, has "demonstrated that machines can think." Several distinguished computer scientists are quoted as predicting that in from three to fifteen years "we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being . . . and in a few months [thereafter] it will be at genius level. . . .

According to the article, this computer "sees," "understands," "learns," and, in general, has "demonstrated that machines can think." Several distinguished computer scientists are quoted as predicting that in from three to fifteen years "we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being . . . and in a few months [thereafter] it will be at genius level. . . . " The complete robot may be a few years off, of course, but anyone interested in the prospective situation at the turn of the century can see in the film 2001: A Space Odyssey a robot named HAL who is cool, conversational, and very nearly omniscient and omnipotent.

And this film is not simply science-fiction fantasy. A Space Odyssey was made with scrupulous documentation. The director, Stanley Kubrick, consulted the foremost computer specialists so as not to be misled as to what was at least remotely possible. Turing himself had in 1950 affirmed his belief that "at the end of the century the use of words and general educated opinion will have altered so much that one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted."

The director, Stanley Kubrick, consulted the foremost computer specialists so as not to be misled as to what was at least remotely possible. Turing himself had in 1950 affirmed his belief that "at the end of the century the use of words and general educated opinion will have altered so much that one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted." 30 And the technical consultant for the film, Professor Marvin Minsky, working on an early prototype of HAL in his laboratory at M.I.T., assured Kubrick that Turing was, if anything, too pessimistic.

Now fourteen years have passed, and we are being warned that it may soon be difficult to control our robots. It is certainly high time to measure this original prophecy against reality. Already in the five years following Simon's predictions, publications suggested that the first of Simon's forecasts had been half-realized, and that considerable progress had been made in fulfilling his second prediction.

Key Concepts

• The need for a critique of artificial reason is a special case of a general need for critical caution in the behavioral sciences.
• Artificial intelligence, at first glance, seems to be a happy exception to this pessimistic principle.
• Every day we read that digital computers play chess, translate languages, recognize patterns, and will soon be able to take over our jobs.
• It's a genuine (if small) computer, and it costs around $20. Battery operated, it looks like a portable typewriter. But it can be programmed like any big computer to translate foreign languages, diagnose illnesses, even provide a weather forecast.
• a computer "made up of five major systems of circuitry that correspond quite closely to basic human facultiessensation, reason, language, memory [and] ego." According to the article, this computer "sees," "understands," "learns," and, in general, has "demonstrated that machines can think."
• we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being . . . and in a few months [thereafter] it will be at genius level. . . .
• A Space Odyssey was made with scrupulous documentation. The director, Stanley Kubrick, consulted the foremost computer specialists so as not to be misled as to what was at least remotely possible.
• Turing himself had in 1950 affirmed his belief that "at the end of the century the use of words and general educated opinion will have altered so much that one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted."
• It is certainly high time to measure this original prophecy against reality.

Context

Section II uses media hype, consumer products, and expert forecasts to show how AI is widely treated as an exception to Chomsky’s warning, which Dreyfus aims to challenge by confronting predictions with actual achievements.