Commanders should compare the opposing sides across seven considerations derived from the five constants to forecast victory or defeat.

By Sun Tzu, from L'Art de la guerre

Key Arguments

  • He lists seven comparative questions covering legitimacy, leadership ability, environmental advantages, discipline, strength, training, and consistency in reward and punishment
  • He claims predictive power based on these comparisons: he can “forecast victory or defeat”

Source Quotes

12. Therefore, in your deliberations, when seeking to determine the military conditions, let them be made the basis of a comparison, in this wise: — 13. (1) Which of the two sovereigns is imbued with the Moral law?
Therefore, in your deliberations, when seeking to determine the military conditions, let them be made the basis of a comparison, in this wise: — 13. (1) Which of the two sovereigns is imbued with the Moral law? (2) Which of the two generals has most ability? (3) With whom lie the advantages derived from Heaven and Earth? (4) On which side is discipline most rigorously enforced? (5) Which army is stronger? (6) On which side are officers and men more highly trained? (7) In which army is there the greater constancy both in reward and punishment? 14.
14. By means of these seven considerations I can forecast victory or defeat. 15.

Key Concepts

  • Therefore, in your deliberations, when seeking to determine the military conditions, let them be made the basis of a comparison, in this wise: —
  • (1) Which of the two sovereigns is imbued with the Moral law? (2) Which of the two generals has most ability? (3) With whom lie the advantages derived from Heaven and Earth? (4) On which side is discipline most rigorously enforced? (5) Which army is stronger? (6) On which side are officers and men more highly trained? (7) In which army is there the greater constancy both in reward and punishment?
  • By means of these seven considerations I can forecast victory or defeat.

Context

Chapter i. Laying Plans (lines 58–123); methodological prescription for pre-battle comparative analysis.